Here's Why I Don't Make New Year's Predictions!

As we get ready to say goodbye to 2008 and ring in the new year, I will avoid the temptation to make any predictions—at least not in print for the entire world to criticize in hindsight. 

A case in point.  Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008.   These were all events that affected each of us financially, personally and politically.  You just can’t make this stuff up.

1.     "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" -- Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008

(At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.)

2. AIG "could have huge gains in the second quarter." -- Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

(AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.)

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

(Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.)

4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." -- President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech

(For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting and correcting and correcting).

5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." -- Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

(Five days later, JPMorgan Chase took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.)

6. "Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" -- Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007

(On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million -- down 11% from a year earlier -- in the worst housing slump since the Depression.)

7. "I think you'll see (oil prices at) $150 a barrel by the end of the year" -- T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008

(Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.)

8. "I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system." -- Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008

(In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup needed an even bigger rescue in November.)

9. "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." -- Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007

(About a year later, Madoff -- who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market -- told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.)

10. A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win, the title of a book by conservative commentator Shelby Steele, published on Dec. 4, 2007.

(Mr. Steele, meet President-elect Barack Obama.)

Sometimes as bank marketers we have to go against the grain even when conventional wisdom, from pundits both inside and outside the bank, is telling us otherwise.  We have to continually balance the market realities in which we operate against the validity of the information we are receiving.

As I contemplate 2009, the only prediction that I can safely make is that I’m sure that I will have plenty of grist for this year-end blog next December.

A happy, healthy and prosperous New Year to all!

Cheers,

Nick Vaglio, CFMP

Who is Your "Uncle Dave?"

“'I might have to make a visit to Uncle Dave,' which is what people in Ouray say when they need to take a loan from the local bank, Citizen’s State, whose chairman is named David Wood.”

This is an excerpt from Twilight of a Mountain God, an article about Rick Trujillo - who said the quote - in the January, 2009 Runner’s World magazine.

Trujillo is part mountain goat … his trail running accomplishments, tenacity, endurance and downright stubbornness made me say, “Wow.”  Then I got to this quote and said ... well, let’s just say it was more than “wow.”

Sure, the city of Ouray, Colorado has fewer than 1,000 residents – but any community bank or credit union in ANY city can have an “Uncle Dave.”  It can be your chairman, president, or branch manager.  Even in a metropolitan area, a community institution can have the "Uncle Dave" of the neighborhood surrounding the branch.

Essentially, Uncle Dave is the community’s go-to-guy when it comes to banking.

Think of the power of having an Uncle Dave … especially in this economy with money transferring and trust wavering. 

My goal for 2009 is to begin to create at least one Uncle Dave (this type of rep won’t come overnight). 

You just need to:

• Have the right Uncle Dave – someone who can represent the bank or credit union well and “own the role.”
  
• Be the first to market – it won’t do to be the second Uncle Dave in the market
  
• Be consistent – Uncle Dave is a THE community banker
  

If you have an “Uncle Dave,” please share some thoughts about it in this blog.

Have a very merry Christmas and happy holidays.

Take care,

Eric

Tis ALWAYS the Season!

This time of year makes me even sappier than I already am. I reach out to family members I don't hear from often, I drop a dollar or two in the red kettle every time I pass (and have the cash!), I donate food to food banks and toys for children. I watch parades and movies and act like a child every time I see Santa.

Then it dawned on me...as a society, why do we only do this once a year. The feeling of paying it forward is so extraordinary.

So, is there a lesson here for us marketers? You better believe it.

Reaching out to your family should not happen exclusively by automatically generated letters that go out on holidays and birthdays. What about the letter you write or call you make to say "I just wanted to say hello and congratulate you on your daughter making the honor roll." Would reaching out like this cost you more? Nope. Maybe a little time, but what would it mean to your customer (i.e. family)? It would mean that you care and you are paying attention.

I know that many institutions "Adopt a Family" around the holidays and you and your coworkers pitch in and go shopping for the family to provide them the best Christmas ever. What about the families in your community that suffer a loss...loss of a job, loss of a loved one, loss of a home. I'll bet they could use a little help at some point during the year too.

What I am saying is that there are so many ways we can do special things throughout the year, with a little effort and very little out of your budget that will go a long way for you and your institution. Just think about the publicity (not that I am encouraging being a vulture with a camera or an ambulance chaser) you could generate.

The concept of paying it forward is something we believe can speak volumes of how you do business...not to mention help to create customer evangelists! And creating customer evangelists is priceless.

It is ALWAYS the season for giving back. Do something extraordinary in March too.

Jenna

The holidays aren't so hot...

for most arts organizations. More news from around the nation on the impact the economic crisis has had on arts organizations:

Shakespeare Santa Cruz Has 1 Week To Save Its Own Life
Ailing California Orchestra Cancels Season
KC Symphony Hit By Economy And Competition
More Trouble For Ballet BC As Bank Freezes Funds
A First Glimpse Of Houston Ballet's New HQ (Or Not)
NPR Cuts Two Programs And 7 Percent Of Staff
Tough Times Get Tougher In Charleston
Miami City Ballet Resorts To Taped Music
Baltimore Opera Company Filing For Bankruptcy Protection
Filling The House: Met To Offer Subsidized $25 Tickets
Broadway Musicals Dropping Like Flies
Las Vegas Philharmonic Musicians Lose Confidence In Management
Art Basel Miami Slowdown
A Formerly Secure Arts Venue Takes A Dive
Las Vegas May Lose Children's Concerts
Virginia Symphony Cuts Concerts, Salaries
Las Vegas Art Museum Chief Steps Aside; Cuts Ahead

There was one piece of good news:
Minnesota Orchestra Defies Recession, Posts Surplus

Round Two: Arena Stage's New Deal Program

When designing the Arena Stage "New Deal" One Day Only Sale, I knew that we were applying a temporary band-aid to a relatively large problem, and we would have to take a more systemic approach to dealing with the issues ahead of us. To keep the analogy going, I didn't expect the one day only sale to be the knock out punch in the first round, so here we are in round two (actually probably round 3).

In our response to the economic crisis, we have done the following:

Round 1: Arena Stage "New Deal" One Day Only Sale (November 14, 2008)

Round 2: Adjusted income projections and decreased expense budgets. Senior staff and members of the board formed three committees--the earned revenue committee, contributed revenue committee and an expense reduction committee. Each committee met several times over the course of a month to develop a recommendation for action for the full board. Both the earned revenue and contributed revenue committees readjusted their projections from the approved FY09 budget, presenting to the full Board conservative estimates on the impact the current economic crisis will have on the company. To match these adjustments, the company reduced its expenses and raised additional contributions. (November 21, 2008)

Round 3: Launch of the Arena Stage "New Deal" seats for all performances (December 12, 2008). Arena Stage previously operated on two classes of seats: A seats (prime seats) and B seats (economy seats). We were finding that we weren't having problems selling prime seats, but that our seats at the lower end of our pricing chart weren't moving as quickly as usual. To create a lower entry point while trying to avoid upsetting our subscribers who purchase early and therefore get the greatest discount, we created a new section of seats, called the NEW DEAL seats and set a price of $25. The NEW DEAL section would be limited to the last four rows in our Crystal City venue and the upper balcony in our DC venue. These areas of the each house didn't contain any subscribers, and therefore they wouldn't be upset by a mid-season change in pricing. To further address any subscriber concerns, we sent each subscriber a letter outlining the new program and giving them access to purchase NEW DEAL seats a day before the general public. The new $25 ticket price is 47-64% off what those seats previously cost, offering a significantly lower entry level price to all our performances. No other discounts can be applied to these tickets, and subscriptions aren't available in this price category (to prevent B seat subscribers transitioning to NEW DEAL seat subscribers). So far this move has garnered us some press attention from the Washington Post and our local NBC affiliate, and although I suspect these tickets will be quite popular, they won't sell at the pace of the previous offer. Where Round 1 was a sprint, this is more like a marathon.

I will keep you updated on the results. We opened NEXT TO NORMAL at Arena Stage last night, and I was really struck by one of the lyrics--"even the darkest night will see light."

2009 Resolutions

Well, we’re 14 days from “The big day.”  Then we have 5 December days that might as well not exist … then New Year’s Eve.  So I thought I’d take his time to skip straight to New Year’s Resolutions.

Among the office parties, branch parties, management lunches, friend’s gatherings and family get-togethers … consider some of the following resolutions for ’09:

 “In 2009, I resolve to…

• Measure ROI on all major campaigns and on my marketing efforts overall (at least monthly or quarterly)
  
• Write at least 3 personal note cards per week to key commercial prospects
  
•  Test variables (target, message, offer, mailer dimensions, etc.) on at least 2 direct mail campaigns
  
• Get an idea from at least one non-bank related retail example ... and use it
• Better use segmentation to stretch my marketing budget and increase results
  
• Conduct a benchmark awareness study in Q1 and a follow-up study in Q4 … and show a positive trend!
  
• Focus as much on the delivery of the promise (front line practices and sales techniques) as I do on the marketing message itself (external communication)
  
• Improve internal communication of bank objectives, goal progress and brand messaging/delivery
  
• Form a marketing advisory board of targeted customers to critique all messaging (ads, web site, direct mail, etc) from an outside, non-banking perspective
  
• Read/attend every trade pub, industry blog, and webinar that I can get my hands on to stay on top of the industry – and not just read the marketing articles.
  
• Read at least one non-industry related marketing book
  
• Attend the ABA School of Bank Marketing & Management … Get my CFMP certification
  
• Have more fun at my job because there’s nothing better than being a marketer!
  

Now, I need your help!  Please post a comment to this blog to add your own’09 resolution or to comment on any of the ones above.

Good luck making it through the next few weeks and enjoy the holidays.

Take care,

Eric

Blog Series #2 -- Making Marketing Relevant

Relevance. Webster's defines it as "connected to the matter at hand. Pertinent." I believe relevance means that "it ties to my life." Relevance is also in the eye of the beholder. However, as a marketer, we know that we can influence relevance and that without it...we are a complete after thought -- if that much.

Being relevant starts with understanding who your audience is...from an internal and external perspective. Determining what their needs are (asking them) and then communicating in a manner that resonates. Resonates is an important word when it comes to relevance. Your message has to "hit home" to create relevance and connect to your target audience's life.

The concepts you need to analyze for your organization....

• who is our target?
• what is their need (individual and collective)?
• what is their reference point?

Once you determine these items...you can begin to craft a communication tone and message. the last item is perhaps the most critical...their reference point. This simple (yet complex) idea is that each of our customers and prospects has a reference point for us. It may be through a parent, their work, their friends, or through media. The reference point is the fulcrum of their balancing point with us...the starting point to creating, enhancing or cancelling a relationship with us. We have to know their reference point to better understand their needs, buying behaviors and the influences in their life.

The relevance of our marketing starts and ends with our communications. Facebook. MySpace. ING. Zappos. There are new breeds of communication delivery everywhere...some include a financial implication directly, but all impact us in some way. If we chose to target the millennials...and we decide to use Facebook. We could be committing a major misstep. The new communication tools come with a new set of rules. Get to know them.... talk to millennials that work for you, bank with you, or have a reference point with current customers of you.

The best relevance message includes:

• clear connection to the reference point
• clear connection to their need
• clear connection to the future

You have built the uniqueness of you, your organization and your brand....now take that uniqueness and ensure it is relevant to your target.

In these times, relevance matters. Being at the right place at the right time matters, too. Here is an article about being a community bank in today's economic times...this is the RIGHT place and RIGHT time for community bankers!

Cheers!

Bruce Clapp